FMCG market in 2026: a bet on CTM, the "routine" of online purchases and a buffer for a mature audience

Following the results of the past year and at the beginning of 2026, the Russian grocery retail continues to transform under the influence of economic factors and changes in consumer habits. The experts who spoke at the WorldFood Summit noted the key vectors of the industry's development: consolidating the status of proprietary trademarks (STM) as a growth driver, the final "routine" of online shopping, as well as the record involvement of an older audience in e-commerce. Analytical data was shared by Alexey Gorbatenko, an expert analyst at ICMR GFK-Rus.

Market dynamics: money vs natural volume

According to ICMR GFKK-Rus, the consumer goods market (FMCG) is showing positive dynamics in monetary terms, having added 9.9%. The product categories showed year-on-year growth of +10.8% relative to the turnover in 2024. However, experts emphasize that this increase is mainly of a price nature.

The situation is different in natural volumes (physical units of goods). After falling to the lowest values (-6.5% in July 2025), in the period from August to November, the market stabilized, but with negative dynamics remaining at the level of -3.8% on average.

Alexey Gorbatenko noted that, if compared with the indicators of 2023, the current level of consumption has returned to the values of two years ago. At the same time, in 2024, the market still showed growth in physical terms, but the trend changed in the second half of 2025.

Change of leaders among trading formats

Against the background of stagnation in physical sales volumes, shares are being redistributed between sales channels.

According to the results of 2025, the absolute leaders were hard discounters and e-commerce, which occupied 9% and 11% of turnover, respectively. These formats are growing due to the outflow of customers from traditional trade and drogeri (low and medium price segment stores).

The "Convenience Store" format deserves special attention. In the fall of 2025, consumers began to perceive prices in this segment as more attractive compared to hypermarkets and supermarkets. As a result, 45% of households increased their share of spending at such points by at least 1 percentage point.

Retailers of the "at home" format are actively moving towards ultra-convenience, opening mini-stores with an emphasis on ready-made food, drinks, coffee points and mini bakeries. According to Alexey Gorbatenko, customers choose such points not only in search of savings, but also to meet new needs for convenience and speed of service.

Online trading: speed instead of volume

E-commerce remains the fastest growing channel. The cash turnover of FMCG online sales increased by 25% compared to the previous year, reaching a share of 11% of the total market.

The key driver of growth is not an increase in the average receipt, but an increase in the frequency of purchases. Supermarkets and marketplaces have become the leaders in turnover growth. Against this background, online hypermarkets, on the contrary, have exhausted their growth potential. Experts attribute this to a change in customer expectations: the modern buyer chooses services with delivery in 30-60 minutes, avoiding the need to wait for an order for 4 hours or more. Convenience comes to the fore, overtaking the price factor.

Penetration and age structure

Although the largest share of online purchases still falls on the capitals, the channel's penetration is actively growing in the regions. During the year, 67% of Russian families made at least one FMCG purchase online (+1.8 percentage points) .

The most noticeable shift occurred in the age structure of the audience. Traditionally active youth (18-29 years old) He retains his leadership, but the oldest growing group has become the older generation (66+). Over the past four years, the penetration of online commerce among the elderly has grown by 20%.

This trend encourages networks to implement AgeTech technologies aimed at adapting interfaces and services to the needs of older people, making applications intuitive.

Own brands: from savings to loyalty

In an environment where the main strategies of customers remain the search for low prices and promotions, retailers are increasing their focus on developing their own brands (STM). In 2025, STM's share in the FMCG market reached 13.7%, an increase of 1 percentage point per year.

The leader in sales of STM among the channels are hard discounters, where the share of private brands in turnover is 26.9%.

Experts pay attention to the correlation of STM success with the level of loyalty (NPS):

• In chains with a high loyalty index, customers are ready to purchase STM at a price comparable to federal brands, which allows retailers to enter the premium segment.
• With low loyalty to the network, such a pricing policy for STM becomes ineffective.

The direction of a healthy lifestyle (HLS) is also actively developing. Already a quarter of customers associate STM with a healthy diet, and almost all major chains include healthy lifestyle lines in their assortment.

The specifics of online STM development

In e-commerce, the share of STM sales in 2025 was 16.6%. VkusVill accounts for more than 30% of the online turnover of private labels (although its share is gradually decreasing). Online supermarkets make the biggest contribution to online sales of STM.

An interesting dynamic is observed in the switching between price segments. Online shoppers are actively migrating from premium brands to STM, leading brands, and the economy segment. Private labels are becoming the main source of losses for the premium price segment. At the same time, a significant part of this switch is associated with an increase in the consumption of ready-made cooking, which is often represented by STM.

Prospects: personalization and AI

Speaking of the near future, experts predict the appearance of referral AI assistants in online retail. These tools, which have the potential of a new retail media, will help users assemble a shopping cart by responding to customized requests. An example of this approach is the testing of the personal assistant "Shop Al" in the service "Yandex Shop".